ARIMA Model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Evidence from Nigeria | Archives of Current Research I

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country is a key indicator of economic and income growth. The research data for this study is annual statistics on Nigeria's GDP from 1981 to 2019. The data was tested for stationarity using an Augmented Dick Fuller test, and it was found to be stationary at the second differencing. After analysing the AIC values, Eviews 11 programme identified ARIMA (1, 2, 1) as the best model. The Residual's Ljung-Box test confirmed that the model was sufficient, and it was used to forecast out-of-sample data. The model's forecasting ability is judged good with a Theil inequality of 0.022008.

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