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Projection of Yield of Rice Crop over Prayagraj with Future Climatic Scenario

The purpose concerning this study was to judge the effects of atmosphere change on productivity of edible grain cultivars Swarna sub-1, Sarjoo-52, Pant Dhan 4, and NDR-359 for the age 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 for the Prayagraj district of Uttar Pradesh utilizing the Marksim and DSSAT crop simulation model under four various climate change sketches, namely RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The model judgment indicated good performance accompanying both measurement (PE=2.43,6.26,4.31,3.79, RMSE= 132.79, 345.13, 237.44, 237.85, nRMSE = 2.53, 7.31, 4.46, 3.97) and validation (PE =3.58, 10.03, 4.28, 6.09, RMSE = 197.88, 456.35, 238.37, 366.52, nRMSE = 3.95, 10.55, 4.67, 6.39) for Swarna substitute-1, Sarjoo-52, Pant Dhan 4 and NDR-359 cultivars respectively, that showed good concurrence between expected and observed principles. For the Prayagraj region, NDR-359 yields ultimate among the four assortments, followed by Pant Dhan 4, Swarna Sub-1, and Sarjoo-52. By checking the future climate dossier that MarkSim's weather generator downloaded, it was seen that all other weather variables, in the way that solar radiation, average maximum and minimum hotness increases while rainfall decreases. The judgments of the study reveal that, with all projection scenarios, the piece yield is greater for RCP 2.6 and shortest for RCP 8.5. Analysis of the expected surroundings scenario dossier with yield told that the yield was higher in 2030 and lower in 2050. Additionally, it was noticed that again in 2090 the yield gets raised for RCP 2.6 & decreased for RCP 4.5,6.0 & 8.5. Among all the four cultivars the yield of Sarjoo-52 will be deprived of for RCP 4.5,6.0 & 8.5 for the year of 2050,2070 & 2090.These judgments may offer perceptive information about attainable climate change belongings on rice yield and acceptable adaptive policies to minimize the negative belongings of future climate change.


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